Week 35, August 17–23, 2026 The crypto market priced in the political signal before the law itself. Over two days, market capitalization rose by more than $400 billion. However, the bill never made it out of Congress. Regulation remained at the agency-project level: the White House brought exchanges together, regulators are drafting rules, and the odds of passage in 2026 are still below one-third. The industry is pursuing a parallel path through banking licenses. Market growth is being driven by ETFs and derivatives The two-day rally coincided with three-month record inflows into exchange-traded funds and a wave of short covering. On August 20, market capitalization rose from $2.19 trillion to $2.42 trillion; on August 21, it reached $2.6 trillion. BTC climbed to $78,000, up 23% in two days. Inflows into BTC ETFs totaled $606.3 million, and into ETH ETFs $220.8 million. Over the same period, $3.1 billion and $1.2 billion in short positions were closed — on the second day, 83% of all liquidations. The rally coincided with a U.S. Treasury statement about doubling bond buybacks. The law is being discussed at the White House, while agencies write the rules The sector-specific bill has moved from Congress into White House negotiations, while agencies are drafting the regulations. Trump hosted Nasdaq, Robinhood, Kraken, ICE, Coinbase, and Ripple in the Oval Office — they discussed the Clarity bill and a strategic BTC reserve. The ethics ban for officials, the main obstacle to Democratic support, was not discussed at the meeting. According to Polymarket, the odds of passage in 2026 rose from 18% to 29% over the week. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed exempting $5 million placements from registration for four years. Crypto companies are entering the banking perimeter The supervisory regime for crypto companies is shifting toward licensing. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) conditionally approved a banking license for WLF — the Trump family company with a $4 billion stablecoin — and will publish 376 pages of rules in November for the GENIUS Act, which comes into force on January 18, 2027. The U.S. Treasury intends to clarify when a stablecoin is considered issued in the United States and to cover foreign issuers as well. Payward, the owner of Kraken, is exploring jurisdictions for a full-fledged bank outside the U.S. JPMorgan, which severed ties with Polymarket in 2025, is seeking to underwrite its IPO at a $20 billion valuation.